Tuesday, 14 June 2016

Risk Management Part 2

In my previous post, I discussed the mentality one should adopt in order to manage their risk effectively. I also touched on how to adjust your order quantity such that your loss is calculated and therefore, reduces your uncertainty.

Today, I will be discussing another technique which I personally use for managing my risk. In simple terms, I close half my position when the price hits the mid point between my entry price (the price I buy/short) and the target price (the price I will close my position).  After closing half my position, I will move my stop loss to either just below the low of the day or breakeven, whichever is higher for long positions, or whichever is lower for short positions.

Let's go through the examples.

Example - Starhub




Lets assume you want to buy 1000 shares of Starhub at the price $3.34. Your target price is $3.5. You calculate the midpoint by taking ($3.5-$3.34)/2 + $3.34 = $3.42


After longing the position, the price eventually hits your midpoint price, you sell 500 shares and move your stop loss to the higher of either the day's low or breakeven. In this case, it is the day's low (note: place stop just below the low)

You keep adjusting the stop loss every day to move it to just below the day's low until you get stopped out or the price hits your target price.






In this case, the your remaining 500 shares for Starhub would have been stopped out at $3.42. It did not go according to your plan which is $3.5, but it was still a profitable trade. If you keep this up, you will greatly minimise the the losses that you will experience.

This strategy of course isn't the optimal strategy for everyone. You will have to access your personal risk tolerance and see if this fits in your overall strategy and goal.

I find that by having this strategy, there is a lesser chance my unrealised profits will be wiped out. Essentially, once the price hits the midpoint, I am guaranteed profit on the trade. You will have successfully removed all uncertainty regarding potential losses.

What a great position to be in wouldn't you say?

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.






Sunday, 12 June 2016

What is Proper Risk Management? Part 1

It's been a pretty long time since my last update. I have been focusing on exams but I'll be continuing to post my trades and my methodology on this site so stay tuned!

Today, I wish to discuss 'risk management' and how important it is for anyone who is investing/trading.

I started out trading with the mentality of asking myself "How much could I win?". This mentality made me hold on to positions even though it was going south. In my mind, I was constantly telling myself that I wouldn't close the position unless it was making at least some profits. If this sounds familiar to you, better read on!

I have shifted my view on this to what I feel is a more appropriate way to view a trade, which is to ask yourself "How much am I willing to lose?". Having a predefined amount that you are willing to let go off in the event the trade goes against you lets you feel in control. Your level of uncertainty when it comes to losses is greatly reduced. To do this, adjust your order quantity so that it allows your potential loss to match your risk appetite.

Lets me give you an example:


This is the chart of Sembcorp Marine S51. Lets assume that you want to short at $1.695 and you calculated a stop loss of $1.81. The next question to ask yourself is, "How many contracts should I short?"

In order to ensure that you have a controlled level of risk, lets assume you are going to risk $200 if the trade does not work out. You should calculate the "distance" or the difference between your entry price and your stop loss.

In this case, it would be $1.81 - $1.695 = $0.115

Therefore, the number of contracts you should short would be = Risk Amount/Distance = $200/$0.115 = 1739

If you shorted 1739 contracts of Sembcorp Marine S51 at $1.695 and placed your stop at $1.81, your estimated potential loss is $200. Doesn't this sound way better than an undefined amount where you base position size on "feel" rather than calculated risk?

I will be posting more articles about risk management soon so stay tuned!

Feel free to leave a comment and I'm happy to listen to any of your suggestions or feedback.

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.





Friday, 4 March 2016

[Bullish Setup] - Starhub (SGX:CC3)


I was looking through some Singapore stocks and Starhub caught my attention. I have entered long on Starhub, I believe it will be going through a mean-reversion in the next few days. I am also considering purchasing Starhub for my dividend portfolio, will keep you guys updated soon.

Entry: $3.42
Stop Loss: $3.32
Take Profit: $3.56

RRR: 1.52

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.

Wednesday, 24 February 2016

[Bearish Setup] - Macquarie Infrastructure (NYSE:MIC)


I have identified a shorting opportunity for MIC and I'll be risking a little more money because it's in line with the direction of the S&P 500.

Entry: 59.41
Stop Loss: 63.22
Take Profit: 52.94

RRR: 1.7

I am still monitoring the markets right now giving it some time to stabilise before placing an order. You don't want to place an order within the first hour of trading using this strategy as it can be accidentally triggered due to the large movement in price by the market movers.

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.

Tuesday, 5 January 2016

Did you trade S&P500 (NYSE) with me for a $1675 profit in 6 days?


Wrote a post last week about a shorting opportunity for the S&P 500. I closed my position using a trailing stop. I will be monitoring it for a chance to go long before looking to short again. My overall sentiment towards the market is still very bearish.

I could have gotten a little more if my trailing stop did not get triggered, but I can't complain. The lesson I got out of this trade was to let the market work itself and perhaps use a trailing stop on a longer timeframe.

Congrats to all who followed the call!

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.

Sunday, 27 December 2015

Tuesday, 15 December 2015

Tuesday, 8 December 2015

Did you trade WPX (NYSE) with me for a $2236 profit in 19 days?



Wrote a post about a shorting opportunity for WPX a few weeks back and yesterday I decided to take profit as it was near the support. Congratulations on those who followed the call. The entire trade a little bit of a roller coaster as you can see after I entered short, I was actually making a unrealised loss for quite a number of days.

This reminds me of a book i read about how being discipline and sticking to your trading plan is essential if you want to succeed in this.



As always, happy trading.

Cheers.

Monday, 16 November 2015

[Bullish Setup] - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (SGX: BS6)


I have been watching this ticker for quite some time after I exited my position. There seems to be a long opportunity and I will be watching it closely today.

Entry: $1.165
Stop Loss: $1.12
Take Profit: $1.23

RRR: 1.55

Always remember to give the market some time to adjust itself and not to jump in right as the market opens because there is a potential that your entry might be triggered not by actual shift in momentum, but by marginal investors adjusting their position.

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.

Thursday, 12 November 2015

[Bearish Setup] - WPX Energy (NYSE: WPX)


Entered a short position for WPX Energy yesterday.

Entry: $8.47
Stop Loss: $9.37
Take Profit: $6.68

RRR: 2

I entered this trade because of the indecision of the market the the past couple of days and judging from the volume, it shows the loss of momentum of the uptrend. My profit taking level is based on the prior resistance level.

As always, happy trading.

Cheers.